someone you know will die

.98 chance of not dying.
My immediate family is 30 people.
.54 chance of someone not dying.
50-50 chance that someone in my immediate family will die.
Whoops

114
228
If you know 114 people, there is a 90% chance that one of them will die.
If you know 228 people, there is a 99% chance that one of them will die.