Monday, March 16, 2020

MUCH WORSE

so most of your facts are wrong
1) not 60k, 30-50k but FINE slightly over stated.
2) the flu is trivial. what about the 650,000 every year from heart disease. IF NUMBERS were all that mattered, we wouldn't spend a second talking about 30-60k from the flu and spend ALL of our time and effort on HD
3) "they deserve it" - only BAD people get heart disease and die. IF THEY ONLY OBEYED US and blah blah diet and exercise. they wouldnt have died. Bullshit christian "you sinned and deserve to die" bullshit.

SO WHY is THIS different?
Like the FLU, if I am sick, I can walk up to YOU, INFECT YOU, you being completely innocent, now DIE a slow painful death.
So The Flu and CV19 are about ME attacking you and killing you, while fat people committing suicide of heart disease is JUSTICE!!! (shudder no I dont think that way, but society sure does)

SO WHY IS CV19 different than the flu?
Well, IF we did NOTHING. ZERO.
No closing of nothing. business as usual. Everyone goes to work. plays outside. eats drinks and infects EVERYONE, just like we do with the FLU!!
We would be looking at 3 to 12 MILLION dead. So ... a LOT more than the flu.

Because we have vaccines, and even without everyone getting a vaccine, we get herd immunity.
The flu only infects 10 to 20%. And only kills 0.1%
This is low enough that we morally dont give a fuck about the 30,000 dead. (otherwise vaccines would be legally mandatory).

CV19 is ... FUCKING INSANE.
no vaccine. we have no vaccine for the common cold (which some is caused by CV1-18 lol maybe not their names)
So ZERO immunity. Zero herd immunity.
The experts are assuming/predicting 60% infection rate. SIX TIMES the FLU. So even if the death rate was the same as the flu, that would be 200,000 dead!! which is crazy talk. AND, it skews old. For some reason, we are FINE with school kids getting gunned down, but have a problem with letting grandma die (christian bullshit again. HONOR THY PARENTS!!!)

But wait, there's more.
We can only estimate CV19 CFR (death rate). We have science to do the estimation. There are a ton of different methods, they all have problems, but so what. Estimate and act on the estimate, or do nothing and potentially kill MILLIONS?
So the estimate is anywhere from 3.4% (the WHO) to OH FUCK
China's CFR is ~4 to 4.5 and the chinese data is SUSPECT.
Their number of new deaths dropped to zero. from hundreds a day.

The numbers out of Italy are FUCKING INSANE. much much much worse than china, even adjusting for LOTS OF OLD italians.

So ... Assume the CFR is 3%. That is 30x the CFR for the flu.
So instead of 30,000 dead, you would have 900,000 DEAD!!
And that's if only 10% get infected.
IF 60% get infected, that's 6 million.

blah blah "we dont know"
We don't know is not science. It is people who dont comprehend science being confused about numbers.

We dont KNOW the exact number of infections, all the mild ones.
True, BUT we have ENOUGH data from Korea to ESTIMATE.
Korea has done more testing than any other country, by a LARGE margin. They have a LOW infection rate, because they started testing and shutting down RIGHT AWAY.

(taiwan, with their NATIONAL PUBLIC HEALTH DATABASE, has basically stopped the infection cold. so far)

So ... the US
a) we assume that cv19 is EVERYWHERE ... there are cases in every state.
b) which means that the virus GOT THERE 1-2 weeks ago. WHOOPS
c) so .... statistically, esp in a big city, IF YOU went outside in the last 2 weeks, there is every chance that you got infected and have been spreading it. WHOOPS
d) holy crap this is getting long ... call me tomorrow, I am home and bbored bored bored bored ... and NO wont meet up with you in the real world. I would feel bad about killing you  

No comments:

Post a Comment