Tuesday, March 17, 2020

2020 03 17 - corona - predictions using cases per million as a predictor

my life is numbers. -
two weeks.
34,000 ICU cases (including deaths)

Crap ... I just ...
Italy has 520 cases per Million, Japan? 7. Why so different? Is it JUST that the Japanese bow?

So when you LOOK at the data as CASES per MILLION.
(the US is at 19, but that's because we are only testing royalty and millionaires)
Looking at this metric is a different way of thinking about HOW BAD WILL IT GET.

China, Korea, Italy
56, 152, 520
18,000; 53,000; 170,000

IF we had teh same quarantine as china, we would expect 18,000 cases. Korea is in the middle.
We went the route of Italy. Little to no quarantine. No testing. Lying about the problem.
So we should expect 170,000 cases.
In the next two weeks.
WHOOPS, we dont have any testing.

sure, those 80% of those 170,000 will be mild/recover.
but 34,000 will be in the ICU and probably die.

two weeks
Anyone want to bet that NONE OF THIS WILL HAPPEN?

If one of your nutter friends is still in denial, have them come here and bet me. Strange, if you wont bet, you must think that you are wrong, right?? LOL

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