I do keto, cause TRYING FUCKING STICK TO KETO ... and I am crazy healthier with no carbs
BUT, you can switch ....
in theory, each week you can pick different recipes ... for a few weeks out.
I CRAZY CRAZY CRAZY CRAZY recommend it. I ... have finished them ALL !! lol
1) I get 3, 2-person meals each week. which means 6 meals for me. typically lunch and dinner. or like yesterday and tonight, two dinners.
2) trina and scott and denise are HOOKED
Denise's daughters were like MOM YOU CAN COOK?!!!
3) 30 minutes start to finish. so for me, NO PLANNING .... lol
SOME recipes call for baking in the oven, fuck that shit, I cut them into piecces and stir fry.
4) CRAZY nice way to try new things ....
cumin seed, onions and cabbage? ZERO chance that I would ever have eaten that. I now buy cabbage just to make my own ... hahaha
5) good portions ... smaller than I want, but I am fatter than I want. so perfect. hahaha
I think ... I have had ONE thing that was 3/5. everything else was a solif 4 or 5. FFS, I scrape the bowl. LOLOL
and ... other than a little slicing and needing two pans ... really easy to make. simple recipes.
dont get me wrong you can cook. I can cook.
BUT ... no measuring ... jsut open packets, dump stir
I have bought 2-3 different spices because of them ... mmmmmmmmm
Can you TELL that I like them??
Monday, March 30, 2020
2020 03 30 - AFTER the desktop exploded - and what I KNOW so far.
so ... to let you know where I am on THE DESKTOP OF DEATH
1) I tried replacing my C drive with a NEW C DRIVE (aka, old one laying around)
THis was still a CLUSTERFUCK FROM HELL
2) UNPLUGGED and removed 100% of ALL OTHER DRIVES ...all 4 of them
OH LOOK ... I was able to EASILY install windows on the NEW DRIVE,
Desktop is totally UP AND RUNNING, FASTER than ever, HOW EXCITING.
TAKE AWAY ....
1) my original C drive was PROBABLY NOT THE PROBLEM (might have been two bad drives, but really??)
2) NEXT STEP - PUT the original C drive BACK INTO THE MACHINE and confirm one way or the other.
Either way.
1) I have a NEW NEW C drive that arrived yesterday - so if the ORG C is dead, I can COPY to NEW and TADA
2) OMFG a clean install is SO FUCKING FAST .... waht is wrong with us ?? HAHAHA
3) FUCKING MAKE SURE that you have offline backups (check), restore points (have them but bad drives= lol), recovery images and what nots
also, learning some STRANGE new things about windows to share later .... LOLOLOL
MY GOD I LOVE Nvme drives.
Thanks again
FIND that awesome flowchart and use it for debugging in the future ... LOLOLOL
1) I tried replacing my C drive with a NEW C DRIVE (aka, old one laying around)
THis was still a CLUSTERFUCK FROM HELL
2) UNPLUGGED and removed 100% of ALL OTHER DRIVES ...all 4 of them
OH LOOK ... I was able to EASILY install windows on the NEW DRIVE,
Desktop is totally UP AND RUNNING, FASTER than ever, HOW EXCITING.
TAKE AWAY ....
1) my original C drive was PROBABLY NOT THE PROBLEM (might have been two bad drives, but really??)
2) NEXT STEP - PUT the original C drive BACK INTO THE MACHINE and confirm one way or the other.
Either way.
1) I have a NEW NEW C drive that arrived yesterday - so if the ORG C is dead, I can COPY to NEW and TADA
2) OMFG a clean install is SO FUCKING FAST .... waht is wrong with us ?? HAHAHA
3) FUCKING MAKE SURE that you have offline backups (check), restore points (have them but bad drives= lol), recovery images and what nots
also, learning some STRANGE new things about windows to share later .... LOLOLOL
MY GOD I LOVE Nvme drives.
Thanks again
FIND that awesome flowchart and use it for debugging in the future ... LOLOLOL
Thursday, March 19, 2020
NORMALLY I would get whiny about "do you own googling", but I have known tony for an ungodly long time. lol
for the best aggregate corona numbers, I get them here. MOSTLY because I can cut and paste the grid into a spreadsheet.
(THey have citations, going to first sources, lol I was looking at a korean newspaper link in hangul.)
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
For the flu, my go to source is the CDC
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm
They are estimates for this season in the US, you can find all the other seasons there too.
10 to 20% infection rate.
~0.1% CFR
And I found THIS article, on HOW to Calculate CFR during an outbreak to be ... informative.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/#correct
Sure, we wont know the "exact number" for ...well, we never will.
We will always have to estimate. But the accuracy will improve.
At some point we will have massive amounts of random, community testing, to determine the true infection rate. Unless 60% gets it, and then well, we dont need a better answer than CRAP THAT WAS A LOT.
The CFR gets harder, if you have the flu, and get this, did the flu kill you, CV19, both? How does it get reported?
And .... if we get the NIGHTMARE 1 to 6 million dead, will we actually be able to determine what they all actually died from?
here's to hoping that we slowed this enough ...
for the best aggregate corona numbers, I get them here. MOSTLY because I can cut and paste the grid into a spreadsheet.
(THey have citations, going to first sources, lol I was looking at a korean newspaper link in hangul.)
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
For the flu, my go to source is the CDC
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm
They are estimates for this season in the US, you can find all the other seasons there too.
10 to 20% infection rate.
~0.1% CFR
And I found THIS article, on HOW to Calculate CFR during an outbreak to be ... informative.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/#correct
Sure, we wont know the "exact number" for ...well, we never will.
We will always have to estimate. But the accuracy will improve.
At some point we will have massive amounts of random, community testing, to determine the true infection rate. Unless 60% gets it, and then well, we dont need a better answer than CRAP THAT WAS A LOT.
The CFR gets harder, if you have the flu, and get this, did the flu kill you, CV19, both? How does it get reported?
And .... if we get the NIGHTMARE 1 to 6 million dead, will we actually be able to determine what they all actually died from?
here's to hoping that we slowed this enough ...
my job and recessions
This is the fourth time that I have been through a recession during my carrier and the answer is sort of still the same.
I have worked for companies that collect data, repackage it for manufacturers and retailers.
1990-1991
After the lengthy peacetime expansion of the 1980s, inflation began to increase and the Federal Reserve responded by raising interest rates from 1986 to 1989. This weakened but did not stop growth, but some combination of the subsequent 1990 oil price shock, the debt accumulation of the 1980s, and growing consumer pessimism combined with the weakened economy to produce a brief recession.
March 2001-Nov 2001
After the lengthy peacetime expansion of the 1980s, inflation began to increase and the Federal Reserve responded by raising interest rates from 1986 to 1989. This weakened but did not stop growth, but some combination of the subsequent 1990 oil price shock, the debt accumulation of the 1980s, and growing consumer pessimism combined with the weakened economy to produce a brief recession
The great Recession 2007/2008
And Trump's Depression 2020
The answer has always been the same. There is tightening, but manufacturers and retailers need the data even more.
I have worked for companies that collect data, repackage it for manufacturers and retailers.
1990-1991
After the lengthy peacetime expansion of the 1980s, inflation began to increase and the Federal Reserve responded by raising interest rates from 1986 to 1989. This weakened but did not stop growth, but some combination of the subsequent 1990 oil price shock, the debt accumulation of the 1980s, and growing consumer pessimism combined with the weakened economy to produce a brief recession.
March 2001-Nov 2001
After the lengthy peacetime expansion of the 1980s, inflation began to increase and the Federal Reserve responded by raising interest rates from 1986 to 1989. This weakened but did not stop growth, but some combination of the subsequent 1990 oil price shock, the debt accumulation of the 1980s, and growing consumer pessimism combined with the weakened economy to produce a brief recession
The great Recession 2007/2008
And Trump's Depression 2020
The answer has always been the same. There is tightening, but manufacturers and retailers need the data even more.
Corona from the other side.
When we come out the other side, there will be some clear changes to society, or in the very least, MANY MORE PEOPLE will be asking ...
Why do I spend all my time driving to the office, when I spent the last 6 months working from home?
Now that I have spent the last 6 months with my natural hair color, why would I spend the time and money chasing that absurd definition of beauty? Chasing that dream of delaying admitting that I am aging?
Now that people that I know personally have had their lives taken from them because of greed, will I tolerate this continuing?
Families and friends spending more time in small groups, dining in, drinking in, gaming in, or watching together, or reading and talking, or art and crafting, or writing, or not running the rat race.
What other "obvious" changes might we see?
Why do I spend all my time driving to the office, when I spent the last 6 months working from home?
Now that I have spent the last 6 months with my natural hair color, why would I spend the time and money chasing that absurd definition of beauty? Chasing that dream of delaying admitting that I am aging?
Now that people that I know personally have had their lives taken from them because of greed, will I tolerate this continuing?
Families and friends spending more time in small groups, dining in, drinking in, gaming in, or watching together, or reading and talking, or art and crafting, or writing, or not running the rat race.
What other "obvious" changes might we see?
Tuesday, March 17, 2020
2020 03 17 - corona - predictions using cases per million as a predictor
my life is numbers. -
two weeks.
34,000 ICU cases (including deaths)
Crap ... I just ...
Italy has 520 cases per Million, Japan? 7. Why so different? Is it JUST that the Japanese bow?
So when you LOOK at the data as CASES per MILLION.
(the US is at 19, but that's because we are only testing royalty and millionaires)
Looking at this metric is a different way of thinking about HOW BAD WILL IT GET.
China, Korea, Italy
56, 152, 520
18,000; 53,000; 170,000
IF we had teh same quarantine as china, we would expect 18,000 cases. Korea is in the middle.
We went the route of Italy. Little to no quarantine. No testing. Lying about the problem.
So we should expect 170,000 cases.
In the next two weeks.
WHOOPS, we dont have any testing.
sure, those 80% of those 170,000 will be mild/recover.
but 34,000 will be in the ICU and probably die.
two weeks
Anyone want to bet that NONE OF THIS WILL HAPPEN?
If one of your nutter friends is still in denial, have them come here and bet me. Strange, if you wont bet, you must think that you are wrong, right?? LOL
two weeks.
34,000 ICU cases (including deaths)
Crap ... I just ...
Italy has 520 cases per Million, Japan? 7. Why so different? Is it JUST that the Japanese bow?
So when you LOOK at the data as CASES per MILLION.
(the US is at 19, but that's because we are only testing royalty and millionaires)
Looking at this metric is a different way of thinking about HOW BAD WILL IT GET.
China, Korea, Italy
56, 152, 520
18,000; 53,000; 170,000
IF we had teh same quarantine as china, we would expect 18,000 cases. Korea is in the middle.
We went the route of Italy. Little to no quarantine. No testing. Lying about the problem.
So we should expect 170,000 cases.
In the next two weeks.
WHOOPS, we dont have any testing.
sure, those 80% of those 170,000 will be mild/recover.
but 34,000 will be in the ICU and probably die.
two weeks
Anyone want to bet that NONE OF THIS WILL HAPPEN?
If one of your nutter friends is still in denial, have them come here and bet me. Strange, if you wont bet, you must think that you are wrong, right?? LOL
Monday, March 16, 2020
MUCH WORSE
so most of your facts are wrong
1) not 60k, 30-50k but FINE slightly over stated.
2) the flu is trivial. what about the 650,000 every year from heart disease. IF NUMBERS were all that mattered, we wouldn't spend a second talking about 30-60k from the flu and spend ALL of our time and effort on HD
3) "they deserve it" - only BAD people get heart disease and die. IF THEY ONLY OBEYED US and blah blah diet and exercise. they wouldnt have died. Bullshit christian "you sinned and deserve to die" bullshit.
SO WHY is THIS different?
Like the FLU, if I am sick, I can walk up to YOU, INFECT YOU, you being completely innocent, now DIE a slow painful death.
So The Flu and CV19 are about ME attacking you and killing you, while fat people committing suicide of heart disease is JUSTICE!!! (shudder no I dont think that way, but society sure does)
SO WHY IS CV19 different than the flu?
Well, IF we did NOTHING. ZERO.
No closing of nothing. business as usual. Everyone goes to work. plays outside. eats drinks and infects EVERYONE, just like we do with the FLU!!
We would be looking at 3 to 12 MILLION dead. So ... a LOT more than the flu.
Because we have vaccines, and even without everyone getting a vaccine, we get herd immunity.
The flu only infects 10 to 20%. And only kills 0.1%
This is low enough that we morally dont give a fuck about the 30,000 dead. (otherwise vaccines would be legally mandatory).
CV19 is ... FUCKING INSANE.
no vaccine. we have no vaccine for the common cold (which some is caused by CV1-18 lol maybe not their names)
So ZERO immunity. Zero herd immunity.
The experts are assuming/predicting 60% infection rate. SIX TIMES the FLU. So even if the death rate was the same as the flu, that would be 200,000 dead!! which is crazy talk. AND, it skews old. For some reason, we are FINE with school kids getting gunned down, but have a problem with letting grandma die (christian bullshit again. HONOR THY PARENTS!!!)
But wait, there's more.
We can only estimate CV19 CFR (death rate). We have science to do the estimation. There are a ton of different methods, they all have problems, but so what. Estimate and act on the estimate, or do nothing and potentially kill MILLIONS?
So the estimate is anywhere from 3.4% (the WHO) to OH FUCK
China's CFR is ~4 to 4.5 and the chinese data is SUSPECT.
Their number of new deaths dropped to zero. from hundreds a day.
The numbers out of Italy are FUCKING INSANE. much much much worse than china, even adjusting for LOTS OF OLD italians.
So ... Assume the CFR is 3%. That is 30x the CFR for the flu.
So instead of 30,000 dead, you would have 900,000 DEAD!!
And that's if only 10% get infected.
IF 60% get infected, that's 6 million.
blah blah "we dont know"
We don't know is not science. It is people who dont comprehend science being confused about numbers.
We dont KNOW the exact number of infections, all the mild ones.
True, BUT we have ENOUGH data from Korea to ESTIMATE.
Korea has done more testing than any other country, by a LARGE margin. They have a LOW infection rate, because they started testing and shutting down RIGHT AWAY.
(taiwan, with their NATIONAL PUBLIC HEALTH DATABASE, has basically stopped the infection cold. so far)
So ... the US
a) we assume that cv19 is EVERYWHERE ... there are cases in every state.
b) which means that the virus GOT THERE 1-2 weeks ago. WHOOPS
c) so .... statistically, esp in a big city, IF YOU went outside in the last 2 weeks, there is every chance that you got infected and have been spreading it. WHOOPS
d) holy crap this is getting long ... call me tomorrow, I am home and bbored bored bored bored ... and NO wont meet up with you in the real world. I would feel bad about killing you
1) not 60k, 30-50k but FINE slightly over stated.
2) the flu is trivial. what about the 650,000 every year from heart disease. IF NUMBERS were all that mattered, we wouldn't spend a second talking about 30-60k from the flu and spend ALL of our time and effort on HD
3) "they deserve it" - only BAD people get heart disease and die. IF THEY ONLY OBEYED US and blah blah diet and exercise. they wouldnt have died. Bullshit christian "you sinned and deserve to die" bullshit.
SO WHY is THIS different?
Like the FLU, if I am sick, I can walk up to YOU, INFECT YOU, you being completely innocent, now DIE a slow painful death.
So The Flu and CV19 are about ME attacking you and killing you, while fat people committing suicide of heart disease is JUSTICE!!! (shudder no I dont think that way, but society sure does)
SO WHY IS CV19 different than the flu?
Well, IF we did NOTHING. ZERO.
No closing of nothing. business as usual. Everyone goes to work. plays outside. eats drinks and infects EVERYONE, just like we do with the FLU!!
We would be looking at 3 to 12 MILLION dead. So ... a LOT more than the flu.
Because we have vaccines, and even without everyone getting a vaccine, we get herd immunity.
The flu only infects 10 to 20%. And only kills 0.1%
This is low enough that we morally dont give a fuck about the 30,000 dead. (otherwise vaccines would be legally mandatory).
CV19 is ... FUCKING INSANE.
no vaccine. we have no vaccine for the common cold (which some is caused by CV1-18 lol maybe not their names)
So ZERO immunity. Zero herd immunity.
The experts are assuming/predicting 60% infection rate. SIX TIMES the FLU. So even if the death rate was the same as the flu, that would be 200,000 dead!! which is crazy talk. AND, it skews old. For some reason, we are FINE with school kids getting gunned down, but have a problem with letting grandma die (christian bullshit again. HONOR THY PARENTS!!!)
But wait, there's more.
We can only estimate CV19 CFR (death rate). We have science to do the estimation. There are a ton of different methods, they all have problems, but so what. Estimate and act on the estimate, or do nothing and potentially kill MILLIONS?
So the estimate is anywhere from 3.4% (the WHO) to OH FUCK
China's CFR is ~4 to 4.5 and the chinese data is SUSPECT.
Their number of new deaths dropped to zero. from hundreds a day.
The numbers out of Italy are FUCKING INSANE. much much much worse than china, even adjusting for LOTS OF OLD italians.
So ... Assume the CFR is 3%. That is 30x the CFR for the flu.
So instead of 30,000 dead, you would have 900,000 DEAD!!
And that's if only 10% get infected.
IF 60% get infected, that's 6 million.
blah blah "we dont know"
We don't know is not science. It is people who dont comprehend science being confused about numbers.
We dont KNOW the exact number of infections, all the mild ones.
True, BUT we have ENOUGH data from Korea to ESTIMATE.
Korea has done more testing than any other country, by a LARGE margin. They have a LOW infection rate, because they started testing and shutting down RIGHT AWAY.
(taiwan, with their NATIONAL PUBLIC HEALTH DATABASE, has basically stopped the infection cold. so far)
So ... the US
a) we assume that cv19 is EVERYWHERE ... there are cases in every state.
b) which means that the virus GOT THERE 1-2 weeks ago. WHOOPS
c) so .... statistically, esp in a big city, IF YOU went outside in the last 2 weeks, there is every chance that you got infected and have been spreading it. WHOOPS
d) holy crap this is getting long ... call me tomorrow, I am home and bbored bored bored bored ... and NO wont meet up with you in the real world. I would feel bad about killing you
Sunday, March 15, 2020
Timeline of lies
This is a timeline of Trump’s response to the coronavirus epidemic:
January 22: “We have it totally under control. It’s one person coming in from China. It’s going to be just fine.”
February 2: “We pretty much shut it down coming in from China.”
February 24: “The Coronavirus is very much under control in the USA… Stock Market starting to look very good to me!”
February 25: “CDC and my Administration are doing a GREAT job of handling Coronavirus.”
February 25: “I think that's a problem that’s going to go away… They have studied it. They know very much. In fact, we’re very close to a vaccine.”
February 26: “The 15 (cases in the US) within a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero.”
February 26: “We're going very substantially down, not up.”
February 27: “One day it’s like a miracle, it will disappear.”
February 28: “It’s all turning, they lost, it’s all turning. Think of it. Think of it. And this is their new hoax. But you know, we did something that’s been pretty amazing. We’re 15 people [cases of coronavirus infection] in this massive country. And because of the fact that we went early, we went early, we could have had a lot more than that.”
February 28: “We're ordering a lot of supplies. We're ordering a lot of, uh, elements that frankly we wouldn't be ordering unless it was something like this. But we're ordering a lot of different elements of medical.”
March 2: “You take a solid flu vaccine, you don't think that could have an impact, or much of an impact, on corona?”
March 2: “A lot of things are happening, a lot of very exciting things are happening and they’re happening very rapidly.”
March 4: “If we have thousands or hundreds of thousands of people that get better just by, you know, sitting around and even going to work — some of them go to work, but they get better.”
March 5: “I NEVER said people that are feeling sick should go to work.”
March 5: “The United States… has, as of now, only 129 cases… and 11 deaths. We are working very hard to keep these numbers as low as possible!”
March 6: “I think we’re doing a really good job in this country at keeping it down… a tremendous job at keeping it down.”
March 6: “Anybody right now, and yesterday, anybody that needs a test gets a test. They’re there. And the tests are beautiful…. the tests are all perfect like the letter was perfect. The transcription was perfect. Right? This was not as perfect as that but pretty good.”
March 6: “I like this stuff. I really get it. People are surprised that I understand it… Every one of these doctors said, ‘How do you know so much about this?’ Maybe I have a natural ability. Maybe I should have done that instead of running for president.”
March 6: “I don't need to have the numbers double because of one ship that wasn't our fault.”
March 8: “We have a perfectly coordinated and fine tuned plan at the White House for our attack on CoronaVirus.”
March 9: “This blindsided the world.”
March 13: “I don’t take responsibility at all.”
meh
January 22: “We have it totally under control. It’s one person coming in from China. It’s going to be just fine.”
February 2: “We pretty much shut it down coming in from China.”
February 24: “The Coronavirus is very much under control in the USA… Stock Market starting to look very good to me!”
February 25: “CDC and my Administration are doing a GREAT job of handling Coronavirus.”
February 25: “I think that's a problem that’s going to go away… They have studied it. They know very much. In fact, we’re very close to a vaccine.”
February 26: “The 15 (cases in the US) within a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero.”
February 26: “We're going very substantially down, not up.”
February 27: “One day it’s like a miracle, it will disappear.”
February 28: “It’s all turning, they lost, it’s all turning. Think of it. Think of it. And this is their new hoax. But you know, we did something that’s been pretty amazing. We’re 15 people [cases of coronavirus infection] in this massive country. And because of the fact that we went early, we went early, we could have had a lot more than that.”
February 28: “We're ordering a lot of supplies. We're ordering a lot of, uh, elements that frankly we wouldn't be ordering unless it was something like this. But we're ordering a lot of different elements of medical.”
March 2: “You take a solid flu vaccine, you don't think that could have an impact, or much of an impact, on corona?”
March 2: “A lot of things are happening, a lot of very exciting things are happening and they’re happening very rapidly.”
March 4: “If we have thousands or hundreds of thousands of people that get better just by, you know, sitting around and even going to work — some of them go to work, but they get better.”
March 5: “I NEVER said people that are feeling sick should go to work.”
March 5: “The United States… has, as of now, only 129 cases… and 11 deaths. We are working very hard to keep these numbers as low as possible!”
March 6: “I think we’re doing a really good job in this country at keeping it down… a tremendous job at keeping it down.”
March 6: “Anybody right now, and yesterday, anybody that needs a test gets a test. They’re there. And the tests are beautiful…. the tests are all perfect like the letter was perfect. The transcription was perfect. Right? This was not as perfect as that but pretty good.”
March 6: “I like this stuff. I really get it. People are surprised that I understand it… Every one of these doctors said, ‘How do you know so much about this?’ Maybe I have a natural ability. Maybe I should have done that instead of running for president.”
March 6: “I don't need to have the numbers double because of one ship that wasn't our fault.”
March 8: “We have a perfectly coordinated and fine tuned plan at the White House for our attack on CoronaVirus.”
March 9: “This blindsided the world.”
March 13: “I don’t take responsibility at all.”
meh
Friday, March 13, 2020
33,000 to 330,000 dead - crude envelope calc
so ... unless we use even more DRACONIAN measures, like china, locking down EVERY city, well, the numbers are unbelievable
For example, we do not NEED to know anything, we can ESTIMATE, and have RANGES, from HOLY FUCKING SHIT, to meh, we got lucky.
For example, we can use the flu. 10% infection rate. 0.1% CFR (death rate).
So pretend that CV is EXACTLY as bad as the flu, not worse, not milder.
(forget about the over crowded hospitals focus on two numbers. and all the other nightmares)
33,000,000 will catch it. 33,000 will die.
BUT we KNOW that the estimated CFR is MUCH higher. We would be doing NOTHING if it was only 0.1%
So let's use a low number, 1% CFR - 10 times worse than the flu.
OUCH 330,000 dead. this would be insane.
3.4%, the official CFR estimate
1,000,000 dead.
SO we are reacting the way that we are, TRYING to slow and stop the spread, we COULD lower the infection rate. TADA
Fuck it, you get the picture.
Without draconian measures, we will have a lot of dead people. Or dodge YET ANOTHER health nightmare.
I AM SO GLAD that rich people got tax cuts, and you are STILL LOOKING FOR HER EMAILS.
For example, we do not NEED to know anything, we can ESTIMATE, and have RANGES, from HOLY FUCKING SHIT, to meh, we got lucky.
For example, we can use the flu. 10% infection rate. 0.1% CFR (death rate).
So pretend that CV is EXACTLY as bad as the flu, not worse, not milder.
(forget about the over crowded hospitals focus on two numbers. and all the other nightmares)
33,000,000 will catch it. 33,000 will die.
BUT we KNOW that the estimated CFR is MUCH higher. We would be doing NOTHING if it was only 0.1%
So let's use a low number, 1% CFR - 10 times worse than the flu.
OUCH 330,000 dead. this would be insane.
3.4%, the official CFR estimate
1,000,000 dead.
SO we are reacting the way that we are, TRYING to slow and stop the spread, we COULD lower the infection rate. TADA
Fuck it, you get the picture.
Without draconian measures, we will have a lot of dead people. Or dodge YET ANOTHER health nightmare.
I AM SO GLAD that rich people got tax cuts, and you are STILL LOOKING FOR HER EMAILS.
Thursday, March 12, 2020
lol poker and ipad
so my old mens club (think trading places), has an annual poker tournament. But chicago sucks, so we cant play for money, so they have prizes for the top three.
Now I have played a TON of texas holdem, here, vegas, indiana, at home.
BUT ... there is skill and luck.
So there were 100-150 maybe 200 players.
And YAY I made it the final table!!
And I have been at final tables before, I have busted on the fucking bubble, I know the story. about half did, half sucked.
10 of us and I am small stack not terrible, but close. and ... grinded out to the bubble.
made the money top three ...
But still small stack, maybe 1/10th of what the leader had.
And grinded MORE ...
And got lucky on the next to last hand and won.
but it was an accident ... lol
second place and I chuckled ... we both KNEW that it was pure random bullshti luck that I won.
Now I have played a TON of texas holdem, here, vegas, indiana, at home.
BUT ... there is skill and luck.
So there were 100-150 maybe 200 players.
And YAY I made it the final table!!
And I have been at final tables before, I have busted on the fucking bubble, I know the story. about half did, half sucked.
10 of us and I am small stack not terrible, but close. and ... grinded out to the bubble.
made the money top three ...
But still small stack, maybe 1/10th of what the leader had.
And grinded MORE ...
And got lucky on the next to last hand and won.
but it was an accident ... lol
second place and I chuckled ... we both KNEW that it was pure random bullshti luck that I won.
yet another list of shows to watch
I stopped saying which service.
Most of the services have cheap or free trial services, do it. Worth it.
Netflix - Carnival Row - fantasy/murder mystery - beautiful - bonus orlando bloom. and ... some of the scenes ... HAWT
Netflix - Altered Carbon - SciFi - VERY good adaptation of some books that I love. Some VERY interesting stuff.
Mindhunter
Killing Eve
Doctor Foster
Prime Suspect - Helen Mirren - cop show, FUCKING the best ever
Silk - British Legal system - crazy good
The Newsroom - Aaron Sorkin's magnum opus - jeff daniels and the rest of the cast ... literally will make you hate faux news more than you do now.
Dark Crystal
The Mandalorian
The Dark Crystal !!! Deet and Hop ... holy crap ...
The End of the Fucking World - INSANELY quirky ... I have only done the first season and should do the next one. heh
Amazon Prime ish - A Discovery of Witches - shut up, watch this, thank me later.
OOOOOOO
Netflix - Travelers - some of the best scifi that you will ever watch. FUCK. Some of the storylines are .... soul shattering.
Orphan black, first season for sure
The good place, esp season one.
Absurd and worth the laugh
lucifer
sherlock
Saving Grace - Hulu (free trial SHUT UP ABOUT COST ... is nothing for a month and you will need it and can cancel)
My good ...As a devout Atheist, Saving Grace ... Holly Hunter is the BEST. And Earl. and Leon Cooley.
Will break your soul.
Dorothy Murray Loth - start here.
Seriously .... laughs and thoughts and Earl
OOOOOOO
Netflix - Travelers - some of the best scifi that you will ever watch. FUCK. Some of the storylines are .... soul shattering.
Orphan black, first season for sure
The good place, esp season one.
Absurd and worth the laugh
the umbrella academy was a SLOW BURN, getting better and better and better until BOOM
russian doll is amazing ...
afterlife , season one and two. Andrew Lincoln and Lesley Sharp.
amazing stories .... suspension of disbelief was trivial for me, and that is not normal
BSG - ESP the miniseries that starts it.
SURE it's about the END OF EVERYTHING and fleeing for your life, BUT the writing is amazing. the acting is perfect. and ... sigh.
The first Episode of season one is the tightest written show that I have ever seen.
https://www.amazon.com/.../B000.../ref=atv_wl_hom_c_unkc_1_5
First two seasons are amazing to sublime, the show gets lost, but ends well.
B5
SG1 SGA lots of hit and miss.
SGU (best of the three)
Buffy
Most of the services have cheap or free trial services, do it. Worth it.
Netflix - Carnival Row - fantasy/murder mystery - beautiful - bonus orlando bloom. and ... some of the scenes ... HAWT
Netflix - Altered Carbon - SciFi - VERY good adaptation of some books that I love. Some VERY interesting stuff.
Mindhunter
Killing Eve
Doctor Foster
Prime Suspect - Helen Mirren - cop show, FUCKING the best ever
Silk - British Legal system - crazy good
The Newsroom - Aaron Sorkin's magnum opus - jeff daniels and the rest of the cast ... literally will make you hate faux news more than you do now.
Dark Crystal
The Mandalorian
The Dark Crystal !!! Deet and Hop ... holy crap ...
The End of the Fucking World - INSANELY quirky ... I have only done the first season and should do the next one. heh
Amazon Prime ish - A Discovery of Witches - shut up, watch this, thank me later.
OOOOOOO
Netflix - Travelers - some of the best scifi that you will ever watch. FUCK. Some of the storylines are .... soul shattering.
Orphan black, first season for sure
The good place, esp season one.
Absurd and worth the laugh
lucifer
sherlock
Saving Grace - Hulu (free trial SHUT UP ABOUT COST ... is nothing for a month and you will need it and can cancel)
My good ...As a devout Atheist, Saving Grace ... Holly Hunter is the BEST. And Earl. and Leon Cooley.
Will break your soul.
Dorothy Murray Loth - start here.
Seriously .... laughs and thoughts and Earl
OOOOOOO
Netflix - Travelers - some of the best scifi that you will ever watch. FUCK. Some of the storylines are .... soul shattering.
Orphan black, first season for sure
The good place, esp season one.
Absurd and worth the laugh
the umbrella academy was a SLOW BURN, getting better and better and better until BOOM
russian doll is amazing ...
afterlife , season one and two. Andrew Lincoln and Lesley Sharp.
amazing stories .... suspension of disbelief was trivial for me, and that is not normal
BSG - ESP the miniseries that starts it.
SURE it's about the END OF EVERYTHING and fleeing for your life, BUT the writing is amazing. the acting is perfect. and ... sigh.
The first Episode of season one is the tightest written show that I have ever seen.
https://www.amazon.com/.../B000.../ref=atv_wl_hom_c_unkc_1_5
First two seasons are amazing to sublime, the show gets lost, but ends well.
B5
SG1 SGA lots of hit and miss.
SGU (best of the three)
Buffy
Monday, March 2, 2020
someone you know will die
.98 chance of not dying.
My immediate family is 30 people.
.54 chance of someone not dying.
50-50 chance that someone in my immediate family will die.
Whoops
114
228
If you know 114 people, there is a 90% chance that one of them will die.
If you know 228 people, there is a 99% chance that one of them will die.
My immediate family is 30 people.
.54 chance of someone not dying.
50-50 chance that someone in my immediate family will die.
Whoops
114
228
If you know 114 people, there is a 90% chance that one of them will die.
If you know 228 people, there is a 99% chance that one of them will die.
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