Tuesday, May 19, 2015

winning in 2016 ... 2015 05 19

Yup. Here's to hoping that Hillary understands now, how Obama beat her, and replicates/copies pretty much everything that was done on the data/internet/tech side of the campaign.  It is clear that the GOP in 2012 read what Obama did, but completely failed to understand how he did it.  And completely failed to execute.

TL;DR - after a quick look, I am much less worried. There is too much risk and too little gain. Only Michigan is a threat right now.

As to the Nebraska model, are there even bills being put forth in states these days?
It could only happen in states with a GOP governor and controlled state house, that is blue ...
This would really only work in swing states.
And you have to wonder ... how much of a risk is this?

Pick Ohio, Florida, Wisconsin, Iowa, Nevada. Do you concede that you cant win it all, so try to get part? And then only get part of the votes when you win the state?  It would be a giant risk.
Split house - so no chance of a change
Iowa
Virgina

gop control of all - so maybe, but is it really worth the risk??
Floriduh
Nevada
Wisconsin
Ohio


My guess ... is that in the end, there is serious risk in making these changes.
Michigan!
Michigan would be your best bet.
The GOP controls the state, but lost by 10%.  So they have much to gain and little to lose.
http://www.freep.com/story/news/politics/2014/12/02/vote-electoral-c ol lege-change/19788725/
They were pushing a bill, but tabled it. 
Shudder.

Nevada
http://www.nationalpopularvote.com/
Nevada is already part of the NPV!!
I wonder how much work it would take to repeal that law and replace it with a proportional electoral vote law

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